USD/TRY: lira collapse eases ahead of CBRT decision, election

The USD/TRY exchange rate was trading at the all-time high ahead of the final CBRT decision before the next general election. The Turkish lira was trading at 19.42, slightly below the all-time high of 19.59. It has remained in this range since October last year. The GBP/TRY and the EUR/TRY have been unchanged as well. 

CBRT interest rate decision 

The biggest forex news on Thursday will be the latest interest rate decision by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). This will be an important decision since it comes ahead of the next Turkish election that pits Recep Erdogan and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu..

Recent polls show that Erdogan has a lead again the opposition. However, historically Turkish polls tend to be highly inaccurate since they are influenced by the political parties. 

Analysts believe that the CBRT will maintain its interest rates unchanged in this meeting. This means that it will leave the overnight borrowing rate at 7% and the one-week repo rate at 8.50% The bank will also leave thr overnight lending rate at 10% even as inflation remains stubbornly high and the Turkish lira sits at its record low. 

The CBRT has moved to support the lira by implementing non-interest rate intervention, including currency controls. Last week, the bank urged its commercial banks to limit their dollar purchases in a bid to ease pressure on the currency. Three weeks ago, as I wrote here, the bank unveiled more measures to support the liraization strategy. It did that by ordering banks to maintain lira deposits between 50% and 60% of their total deposits. 

USD/TRY technical analysis

USD/TRY chart by TradingView 

As I have written before, making a lira prediction has been a bit easier these days because the currency has remained in a tight range. It has failed to react to major events like currency controls and CBRT decisions. 

Therefore, based on recent lira performance, we can expect that the USD/TRY will remain in the current range in the coming days. Major changes will likely happen after the latest general election since it could lead to changes at the CBRT.